MEDEAS-World Model Calibration for the Study of the Energy Transition

Authors

  • Gianluca Martelloni INSTM* c/o Department of Chemistry, University of Florence (Italy)
  • Ilaria Perissi INSTM c/o Department of Chemistry, University of Florence (Italy)
  • Sara Falsini INSTM c/o Department of Chemistry, University of Florence (Italy)
  • Francesca Di Patti Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Institute for Complex Systems
  • Ugo Bardi INSTM c/o Department of Chemistry, University of Florence (Italy)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19245/25.05.pij.4.2.5

Keywords:

Global warming, Transition energy, Emission scenarios, System dynamics, Model calibration, Sensitivity analysis

Abstract

MEDEAS (Modelling the Energy Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraint) World is a new global-aggregated energy-economy-environmental model, which runs from 1995 to 2050. In this work, the MEDEAS world model is tested in order to reproduce the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) GHG (Green House Gases) emission pathways consistent with 2 °C Global Warming. A parameter optimisation of the MEDEAS model, related to different scenarios until 2050, is achieved. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis on the parameters that directly influence the emission curves focusing on the annual growth of the RES (Renewable Energy Sources), GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and annual population growth, is provided. From such an analysis, it has been possible to infer the large impact of GDP on the emission scenarios.

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Published

2020-02-17

How to Cite

Martelloni, G., Perissi, I., Falsini, S., Di Patti, F., & Bardi, U. (2020). MEDEAS-World Model Calibration for the Study of the Energy Transition. PuntOorg International Journal, 4(2), 119-140. https://doi.org/10.19245/25.05.pij.4.2.5